The PinnacleOne Executive Brief has been re-launched. The P1 ExecBrief will offer useful insights on significant developments spanning geopolitics, cybersecurity, strategic technology, and related policy dynamics. It is designed for corporate executives and senior leadership in roles in risk, strategy, or security.
We present our strategic analysis of the current geopolitical situation in our inaugural post, framing international conflicts using Network Warfare and Swarm Geopolitics.
Strategic intelligence for decision-makers is the ExecBrief’s main focus. We want to frame the business significance of sudden crises and track the effects of new strategic trends. We’ll make an effort to cut through the din and get rid of anything unnecessary or exaggerated. However, we truly mean it when we say to “pay attention” or”awareness” you to a crucial development, and we’ll have specific suggestions to follow.
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Swarm Geopolitics and Network Warfare in Insight Focus
Asymmetric warfare and strategic competition now have a different nature thanks to technology and globalization. A small quasi-state organization called the Houthis has de facto blocked a significant maritime choke point by using inexpensive drones and missiles ( supplied by Iran and using Chinese components ). This has disrupted shipping and international supply chains ( see chart below ). The failure of western powers to restore the free flow of commerce marks a strategic turning point in the Middle East’s current state of violence and instability. Further escalation is threatened by recent fatal assaults on US military forces.
In the modern era, global power is equivalent to network power, which is divided into two main categories: chokepoint power and surveillance power. The west continues to hold a dominant position in digital networks thanks to its dominance in the global internet/software market, financial monitoring and sanctions tools, and signals intelligence/cyber capabilities.
However, revanchist authoritarians, who have significant sway over global commodity markets ( OPEC Plus ) and global value chains ( China ), which offer asymmetric leverage against heavily indebted and inflation-sensitive western polities, are increasingly challenging the west within physical networks.
Geoeconomic fragmentation is now the IMF’s watchword, despite the fact that China dominates the strategically significant industries on the Hamilton Index of ITIF, producing more than any other country overall and all but a few others relative ( see below ).
Additionally, these authoritarians have used extensive cyber-enabled economic espionage and disinformation operations to undermine our technological advantage and democratic systems in an effort to turn our dependence on the internet against us. The west’s declining industrial capacity has also severely limited our ability to create and use the ships, missiles, and shells required to repel our enemies.
As a result, conflict and instability are spreading across the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan Strait, Middle East, and Eastern Europe. In an increasingly fierce competition for scarce resources, regional security, and global power, this band serves as a boundary between Autocratic Eurasia and Liberal Oceania.
This is a global conflict, not the traditional sense of the word. It has the characteristics of a swarm attacking key nodes rather than standing armies marshaling for open combat and is being fought in, over, and through global networks. The majority of nations now understand that waging a full-scale war is both expensive and nearly unwinnable.
However, this does not imply peace. It implies that conflict has been pushed beyond the purview of international sovereignty, including weak/failed states, the arctic, cyberspace, and space. Cross-border data regulation, critical technology supply chains, global cloud, AI regulation; social media; immigration/refugee flows; trade and climate policies; and transnational crime are all examples of policy domains that are becoming more militarized and weaponized.
Because these problems are so intertwined, local tensions spread quickly and pose a threat to the entire world. An adaptive response is required in such a non-linear world. A good vantage point is from the board room or the C-suite, but crisis fatigue and the impossibly complex nature of these new risks pose a threat to strategic planning and decision-making.
Every choice will take on larger dimensions and become more intertwined, including IT/cybersecurity programs, supply chain investments and partners, M&, A deals, insider risk, AI integration, and regulatory compliance. An executive leader’s job is to comprehend and navigate key dynamics with greater flexibility than competitors, not to eliminate risk or master this complexity.
Enterprise adaptability is a competitive advantage that is provided by strategic intelligence. As we delve deeper into these problems and how they affect global business, keep an eye on this area.
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Nota bene: Today ( 02FEB24 ), General Paul Nakasone will hand Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh the reins of Cybercom and NSA Director. The cyber mission force, which was fully operational in 2018, was a significant legacy of General Nakasone’s lengthy and illustrious tenure. One of Nakasone’s final deeds was to charge a cross-functional team to reevaluate authorities, training, personnel, and acquisitions given the rapidly evolving threat environment and role of the private sector. Lt. Gen. Haugh will be responsible for advancing that crucial endeavor.